| Yaayaatu
dharma kaamaarthaan
Dhrutyaadhaarayaterjuna
Prasangenaphalaakaankshi
Dhritissa paartha raajasi
That is, “To acquire
money people have great fortitude. A person who has
attachment to acquire wealth or power, also requires
a lot of dhriti i.e. the ability to hold on to our motto,
our goals.”
Multidimensional
Risk is multidimensional and is all about personal positioning
and thinking. For example, a salaried person takes less financial
risk as his remuneration is fixed but he takes the biggest
risk-“the risk of De-Growth”. While in employment
one can never move to be Bill Gates, Azim Premji, Narayan
Murthy or Dhirubhai Ambani.
“No risk no gain is a truth
of life”.
In life as in business there is no clear way to avoid risk
taking. Risk is part of our personal and corporative life.
It spans from the level of personal safety, health, accident
and employment to corporate asset depreciation, production,
inflation, foreign exchange rates, etc.
However, risk can be assessed, warded and managed through
proper analysis and planning.
What is risk?
A risk situation occurs when we are required to make a choice
between two or more alternatives whose potential outcomes
are uncertain and must be subjectively evaluated. A risk situation
involves potential success and potential loss. The greater
the possible loss or profit, the greater the risk involved.
Types of risk
Risk situations are characterized by the presence of uncertain
events as follows:
-
PURE RISK- Sometimes we face risks
with no chance of profit and the best we can hope in this
cases is not loss. This kind of risk is called pure risk.
Hailstorms, earthquakes, hurricanes, dry seasons, and
other natural hazards are considered pure risks.
-
SPECULATIVE RISK- At times the decision
taken can lead to additional profits or alternatively
could deal with non-profit or losses. This kind of risk
is called speculative risk, when risk involves the chance
of making a profit or taking a loss.
Shri B.L. Mittal FCA, FCS, FCWA. This paper was originally
presented at the All India Members Conference on the theme
‘Corporate India – The Superpower Summit 2003’
organised by Committee for Members in Industry of ICAI and
hosted by EIRC of ICAI. Views expressed/given in the Knowledge
Portal are that of the experts concerned and not of the Continuing
Professional Education Committee or of the Institute of Chartered
Accountants of India.
-
FUNDAMENTAL RISK-Risk that affects
the entire economy or a large sector of people or groups
etc. is called fundamental risk. Inflation, wars, recession
etc. are considered fundamental risks.
-
PARTICULAR RISK-Risk that affects
a particular person or a particular business instead of
the entire community, country, industry is called particular
risk. Premature death, labour problems etc. are some of
the examples.
AS A PERSON ONE IS EXPOSED TO -
Personal Risk
Risk of premature death
Insufficient retirement income
Poor health
Property Risk
Damage by fire, flood etc.
L oss by theft, robbery etc.
Property rights
Liability Risk
You may be liable to others for your Unemployment/inadequate
earnings change in law adversely affecting conduct (professional
or otherwise)
- Critical illness
- Partial disablement
- Full disablement
Risk management
Risk is inevitable, one has to take risk in life whether by
choice or otherwise. However, risk can be controlled &
managed through “risk management”.
Risk management is a discipline for dealing
with the possibility that some future event will cause harm.
It provides strategies, techniques, and an approach to recognizing
and confronting any threat faced by anybody in fulfilling
its mission. Risk management may be as uncomplicated as asking
and answering three basic questions:
The Risk Management Paradigm is depicted below
Functions of
Risk Management
Each risk nominally goes through these functions sequentially,
but the activity occurs continuously, concurrently (e.g.,
risks are tracked in parallel while new risks are identified
and analyzed), and iteratively (e.g., the mitigation plan
for one risk may yield another risk)
| Function |
Description |
| Identify |
Search for and locate risks before they
become problems. |
| Analyze |
Transform risk data into decision-making
information. Evaluate impact, probability, and timeframe,
classify risks, and prioritize risks. |
| Plan |
Translate risk information into decisions
and mitigating actions (both present and future) and implement
those actions. |
| Track |
Monitor risk indicators and mitigation
actions. |
| Control |
Correct for deviations from the risk mitigation
plans. |
| Communicate |
Provide information and feedback internal
and external on the risk activities, current risks, and
emerging risks.
Note: Communication happens throughout all the functions
of risk management. |
All risks need rational consideration, and some must be accepted.
Sooner or later, it will be pointed out that a few head injuries
occur to pedestrians, but I hope that it will never be made
mandatory to wear a helmet to take a walk.
Instruments For Risk Management
A well developed financial system offers a variety of tools
for risk management, assessment & control.
The three basic methods are:
-
HEDGING - Hedging is a way of reducing
some of the risk involved in holding an investment. A
hedge is just a way of insuring an investment against
risk. It entails moving from a risky asset to a risk less
asset. One of the ways of hedging is entering into a forward
contract.
-
DIVERSIFICATION - A portfolio strategy
designed to reduce exposure to risk by combining a variety
of investments, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate,
which are unlikely to all move in the same direction.
It has the same benefits as accrues in case of putting
eggs in different baskets instead of putting them in the
same basket. Diversification reduces both the upside and
downside potential and allows for more consistent performance
under a wide range of economic conditions.
-
INSURANCE - This is the most common
tool of risk management. Here risk is transferred from
the insured to the insurer. The insured retains the economic
benefits of ownership while laying off the possible losses
in lieu of a fees or insurance premium to be paid by the
insured to the insurer.
RISK & WEALTH
"Financial success is attained through what you do with
your income, not through how much you earn."
Over a lifetime, most people will experience many different
financial needs and circumstances that can be summarized into
three stages: risk management, wealth accumulation, and wealth
preservation and distribution.
Expert Guidance . . . for a lifetime of financial needs
 |
In risk management, the foundation of financial plans, you
protect that which you can least afford to lose—your
earning power.The foundation firmly in place can help you
accumulate wealth, there being a strong direct link between
risk & wealth. Higher the risk, higher may be the opportunity
to earn which is illustrated as follows:Consider two people.
Each saves Rs.36000 per year, but multiplies it at different
rates. Person A is very risk averse. He puts all his money
in fixed income securities and earns 8% returns. The other
person B employs a diversified portfolio and earns 12% interest.
The following table gives a picture of how money multiplies
in both cases. A’s total savings at the end of 25 years
is Rs.28.78 Lacs while B’s wealth is Rs.54 lacs, about
85% more than A’s. It is important to recognize the
difference between income & wealth. The key is to invest
the amount wisely so that wealth grows with Age.
Savings of Rs.36000 every year
| Rate of compounding (%) |
Sum after 25 years (Rs.) |
| 5 |
1840084 |
| 6 |
2129630 |
| 7 |
2472353 |
| 8 |
2878358 |
| 9 |
3359663 |
| 10 |
3930543 |
| 11 |
4607955 |
| 12 |
5412021 |
| 13 |
6366603 |
| 14 |
7499979 |
| 15 |
8845631 |
| 16 |
10443178 |
| 17 |
12339456 |
| 18 |
14589796 |
| 19 |
17259500 |
| 20 |
20425582 |
| 21 |
24178788 |
| 22 |
28625950 |
| 23 |
33892730 |
| 24 |
40126811 |
| 25 |
47501604 |
| 26 |
56220545 |
| 27 |
66522089 |
| 28 |
78685485 |
| 29 |
93037468 |
| 30 |
109959996 |
| 35 |
251614079 |
| 40 |
566894827 |
Process of risk management
The Essence
“The essence of risk management lies in maximizing the
areas where we have some control over the outcome while minimizing
the areas where we have absolutely no control over the outcome.”
Peter L Bernstein
The Process
Step 1-Identify & Evaluate Potential
Requirements & Risks
First step towards risk management is identifying your financial
requirements and the risks you are exposed to.
The potential requirements of an individual can be listed
down as follows:
- Earning to meet regular consumption needs
- Funds required for
- Self education & development
- Housing
- Car
- Children’s education & marriage
- Parental care
- Other family obligations
- Medical emergencies
- Mission funding
- Plans to start own business
- Charity
- Funds for own business/profession
The risk exposures for an individual can be summarized as
follows:
- Death
- Accident
- Illness
- Critical illness
- Loss of employment
- Retirement
- Property risk
- Liability risk
Step 2- Evaluation Of Attitude Towards Requirement
& Risk
Assessment of attitude towards risk & your money is a
prerequisite to financial planning of an individual.
Take this exercise to check your attitude.
The entire exercise depends upon following three factors:
- Requirement
- Risk taking ability
- Emotional tolerance
1) Your financial requirements are
High
Average
Low
2) You assess your risk taking ability as
High
Average
Low
3) Your emotional tolerance is considered as
High
Average
Low
Assign the following points to your answers:
High
Average
Low
Financial Requirement
4
2
1
Risk Taking Capacity
5
2
1
Emotional Tolerance
4
2
1
Your score decides for you:
- 11 –13 – If you have scored between 11
and 13 it suggests an Offensive attitude towards your
investments with a high risk taking capacity. Therefore
the “high risk high gain” probability works
in your favour.
- 7-10- If you have scored in the range of 7 to 10
you can be classified as an investor with a moderate
attitude which suggests that a safe ratio of risky &
risk less investments builds the right kind of portfolio
for you.
- Below 7-Your score below 7 says it all. You have
a highly defensive attitude towards your money. Low
risk taking & low emotional tolerance suggests investments
with fixed & secured returns for your portfolio
even if they are not so high.
Step 3-Study & discussNext step is to
study and discuss various financial aspects concerning an
individual to draw a suitable financial plan.
Step 4-Selection Of Appropriate TechniqueBased
on your attitude (as evaluated above) and financial needs
one should frame strategic and financial alternatives specifically
designed to suit the needs for a secured financial future.
Step 5- ActionOnce your personal financial
strategy is decided, action should be taken upon so as to
build your well diversified portfolio suiting your financial
appetite.
Constant review
In today’s ever-changing scenario with new opportunities
coming up & changing financial needs one constant solution
does not suffice. Therefore your portfolio requires monitoring
and review periodically so that adjustments can be made, if
necessary, to assure that it continues to move you towards
your financial goals and risk management. |